In Southern Africa, rainfall, especially during the critical months of January and February, for the main season crops planted in November-December was very favourable. More specifically, central parts of the region has received significant amount of precipitation through out this season. However, erratic rains including some dry spells were experienced on the southern periphery of the region (namely in parts of South Africa, Lesotho, and Swaziland), on the northern periphery (in areas such as northern Malawi, northern Zambia and northern Mozambique) and on the western edge (namely in south west Angola). Estimated cumulative rainfall during the first half and the second half of the season is shown in the satellite images (Figure 1a and 1b) below and the resulting NDVI for the most recent dekad for the region is shown in Figure 2. In much of the central part of the region, good rains not withstanding the yields will also depend on other factors as availability of key inputs (fertilizer, chemicals and/or labour for weeding, etc.). Leaching of nutrients due to excessive rains and waterlogging conditions, at certain times, has been a problem in Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Namibia, and Angola among other areas.
1a: 1 October 2005 – 31 December 2006 and 1b: 1 January – 31 March 2006
Data source: NOAA, FAO; by FAO-SDRN, Agrometeorology Group
Figure 2: Southern Africa: NDVI April 2006,
dekad 1 – difference with long term average
If normal weather conditions prevail for the rest of the season, the outlook for the region’s (excluding South Africa) aggregate 2006 maize crop, to be harvested in April-May, is favourable, and output is forecast at 6.9 million tonnes, the largest crop since 2000, about 27 percent over the last year’s drought affected output and 21 percent over the past five year average (see Table 1). This mainly reflects a substantial recovery in maize and cereal production from the drought affected previous year in Botswana, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Namibia. In addition, this early forecast suggests that Mozambique, Madagascar, Lesotho, and Swaziland are likely to achieve more or less similar outputs as 2005. However, Angola due to dry spells and South Africa due to reduction in maize planted area, caused primarily by low maize prices in 2005, are forecast to experience reduced cereal harvests this year. Maize production in South Africa is forecast to decline by about 4.7 million tonnes from the year before. However, with current stocks at a record level of over 5 million tonnes (as of 23 February 2006), immediate food security at national and regional level is not likely to be affected drastically. Southwest of Angola, the main cereal growing area in the country, has been experiencing drought since October 2005. More precise evaluation of the situation would be available later since the Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAMs) are planned for Zimbabwe and Angola to be carried out from mid-April to mid-May 2006.
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